By Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution
The mRNA vaccines are getting the press but for the world as a whole the AZ, Chinese, Russian and similar more traditional vaccines are going to be the big players because facilities exist for scaling them up around the world.
In the big picture, the efficacious of a vaccine doesn’t matter per se what matters is getting to herd immunity. If you have a less efficacious vaccine you need to vaccinate more people but herd immunity is herd immunity, i.e. vaccines mostly protect people not because they are efficacious but because we reach herd immunity. I’ve never had measles mostly because I have probably never been challenged with measles not because I have been challenged but due to a vaccine I fought it off. The AZ vaccine at 70% efficacious will work just fine. (One potential issue, as Josh Gans notes, we don’t yet have data on transmission reduction which could vary by vaccine.)
article date: 2020 12 10
posted: 2020-12-10 22:19:26
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County now under regional stay-at-home order
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Youyang Gu will estimate vaccination numbers and herd immunity
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Fallacies about constraints
I am reading many people claim something like “production and distribution of the vaccine is the constraint, not FDA approval.” There are multiple mistakes in such a view, and here I wish to focus on the logic of constraints rather than debate the FDA issue. First, there are vaccines available right now, and it helps […]
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