By Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution
Overall it seems to me that the costs of approval delay are likely very high. They are not obviously overturned or minimized by citing the relevance of complementary inputs. The import of complementary inputs might be more ruled by “economic time,” or the seasonal effects may be a stronger quantitative magnitude, again favoring faster speed of approval.
Now, given how late we are in “the season,” it is easier to think about pushing the approval date back rather than moving it forward. Let’s say that the FDA postponed the December 10 meeting to January 10. Some number of people would die of Covid during that month — the current clip being around 2600 a day but changing — and then around Jan.10 some kind of vaccine-related health and economic recovery would move into fuller gear.
If only economic time matters, it seems the Dec.10 recovery and the Jan.10 recovery run about the same. The net difference between the two scenarios is the lives lost in the meantime, to oversimplify say 2000 x 30 days, or 60,000 lives plus accompanying lost jobs and gdp.
article date: 2020 12 06
posted: 2020-12-07 12:27:22
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